Flash is Dead. No, Really this Time

It appears that Adobe is going to cease development of mobile Flash.

I'm not ordinarily one to gloat or dwell on I-told-you-sos, but I'm going to make an exception in this one instance. I took an awful lot of heat for those blog rants backin 2009 for saying things like

I hate to break it to you, but Flash, as it currently exists, is dead. Oh, it's not going to die quickly, it's going to die a slow painful death precisely because there has been such a large investment of time and money into using it by so many large corporations like Disney. Flash's roots run way too deep for it to disappear quickly.

Here's the thing, though: Flash is a product of a different generation of computing. It's a product of a world where 90% of the people used one platform, and the bulk of the remaining used another. There was Windows, and there was the Mac.

[…]

And now, the world is changing. People are increasingly browsing the web from mobile devices, and unlike the computer world of a decade ago, the mobile computing landscape is not anything like a monoculture or monopoly. There are several viable mobile platforms all competing in that space. We have the iPhone, Blackberry, Palm Pre, Windows Mobile, Android, Symbian and probably others that have slipped my mind. All of these are operating systems currently shipping on phones and all come with browsers. None of them, except a solitary model of Android phone, has Flash.

But before I get too smug, you know what? I missed a huge factor in the demise of Flash. I assumed the performance issues they were having back then were simply technical hurdles that would be overcome by Adobe's engineers before long. In the end, the lack of a monoculture was certainly a significant factor in the demise of mobile Flash, but the real nail in the coffin was that Adobe never even got mobile Flash working demonstrably well on a single model on a single platform, let alone working well on the "billions of mobile phones" they were shooting for with the Flash Consortium. I completely overestimated Adobe's ability to deliver, technically.

But all is not lost for Flash developers. Adobe has stated that they are going to "refocus" their efforts on allowing Flash to create HTML5 compliant web apps. What a brilliant idea!

If I may… one last quote from my much-reviled Flash rants:

But, that doesn't mean there's no hope. There are many ways that Adobe could save Flash/Flex for the mobile world. One way would be to create something like Google's GWT - an environment where some or all of the code gets translated into HTML and Javascript to be run on the client, leaving to a VM only those tasks that can't reasonably be handled that way.

I said that back in August 2009 and, frankly, I was kind of stating the obvious. Maybe Adobe should have made me CEO. I doubt I would've done much worse than the current management given the recent layoff announcements.

I know people think of me as an Adobe hater. I'm not. More accurately, I'm a disgruntled fan. In the nineties I held Adobe in higher regard than I held Apple (at least Apple before Jobs' return). I adored Photoshop, which I had started using around version 1.5 and which enabled me to make a living for a couple of years. Somehow, in the span of fifteen years, Adobe went from being a company that made amazing things to being a company that made mediocre things that they marketed as amazing. A company that had no focus. A company that churned out new versions of software in order to generate new income, not to meet honest customer demand. I watched a great company become a company that didn't care about being great as long as quarterly profit sheets looked good.

I, for one, am hoping for a Phoenix-like rise from the ashes on the order of Apple's comeback. Hoping… but not expecting.

Experts == Idiots?

It's sad, really, the state of technology journalism. But you knew that, already. I should know to enough ignore link-baiting crappy journalism, especially those that do little more than republish some company's press release. Most days, I do.

Not today, though.

Computerworld posted an article with this headline today: Devs bet big on Android over Apple's iOS.

Wow, really? That seems surprising. What could possibly justify such a claim? Some proof that developers are leaving iOS in droves? Some new data about the Android Marketplace is actually making decent money for a substantial portion of Android developers? No, though it is encouraging to see that the Marketplace opened up to 13 new countries today. Still another 60 or so to go, but it's a step in the right direction. But that fact's not even mentioned in this article.

So what justifies such a grandiose claim? A survey of Appcelerator Titanium developers commissioned by Appcelerator. Now, if you don't know, Appcelerator Titanium is a cross-platform framework that allows you to develop an app once and generate applications for multiple paltforms: iOS, Android, Linux, Mac OS, and Windows.

Leaving aside my personal opinions about cross-platform tools, the article has already strayed from the headline. Devs? Well, sure, they're devs, but they're not representative of devs in general as the headline would imply. They're developers who have specifically chosen one option, and it's an option that doesn't tie them to a platform at all. We're talking about a group of people that have already shown their willingness to hedge their bets and who aren't about to take the risk of hitching their wagon to a single platform.

It's an inherently skewed sample. If you ran that same survey past 15,000 dedicated iOS developers, or dedicated Android or Blackberry or .Net developers, you'd get drastically different results.

In other words, this survey has no value whatsoever except to Accelerator. To them, it's perhaps useful for helping them decide where to devote their resources in the future to keep their clients happy.

But for the world at large? Worthless.

Oh, and what constitutes "betting big" in the context of the article? Well, it's not actually addressed, but their idea of "betting big" doesn't seem to match mine. There's nothing about investments, or exclusive agreements, or anything else that involves any sort of risk whatsoever. Developers were just asked things like "how interested are you in a platform X". The "betting" didn't involve monetary investments, or time investments. These developers did nothing more than state an opinion. An anonymous opinion. Oh… those crazy rebels.

Well, I'm "betting big" that the author of this post is a hack and his soi-disant "expert" is fucking clueless.

Let's face it, nobody knows for sure where the mobile market is headed, and being a Titanium Dev doesn't make your opinion any more informed or valuable than anyone else's. Personally, I suspect Android will continue to grow in market share unless Windows Phone 7 is better than great or else Microsoft manages to one-up Google's relationship with Verizon. But, any way you cut it, this is not a replay of the PC battles. There are too many companies still in the game and who have the potential to grow market share, profit share, or whatever other metric by which you want to judge.

Despite what you may read, there is no clear market leader. Nokia is still in the lead based on total handsets, Blackberry is still in the lead based on smartphone handsets sold, Apple is kicking ass in the profits department, and Android is doing gangbusters in new sales unit, if you lump all the 100+ models of Android phones together and count free phones as sales. Plus, the market is still growing. Apple, for example, didn't increase their market share at all year over year, but they increased their units sold considerably.

Understandably, many people are counting Microsoft out of the mobile game, but I'm not. Though I'm no fan of their technology stack or their approach to business, I think the sheer size of Microsoft's advertising budget, their Enterprise-savvy sales force, and the enormous pool of existing .Net developer talent they can draw on gives them an opportunity for huge inroads. They may not capitalize on it, but it's certainly there and counting Microsoft out of the wireless market would be as foolish as counting Apple out of the game 12 years ago was. And over at HP, lots of money and time is being invested into the Pre platform, which has not been a huge commercial success, but got pretty good grades with many developers who worked with it.

The game's afoot. It's going to be fun to watch, but if you are truly a betting person, this is what you might call a high-risk scenario.